Matt Moore and Rays Begin to Surge - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

Matt Moore and Rays Begin to Surge Stuck

Posted on August 14, 2012 at 07:57 AM.

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The 2012 season will long be remembered for the emergence of Mike Trout. The 20 year old leads the league in WAR and has been the game�s best player since he was called up late in April. He is undoubtedly the Jackie Robinson Award winner, which is the official title for the Rookie of the Year Award. Trout will likely be the first player since Ichiro Suzuki to win both the MVP Award and the Jackie Robinson Award in the same season.

But, before the season, the Tampa Bay Rays starter Matt Moore entered the season as one of the favorites to win rookie honors. The talented 23 year old southpaw was coming off a taste of the Major Leagues that saw him pitch 19.1 dominant innings. 9 of those innings were in the regular season, with the additional 10.1 innings coming in the first round of the playoffs last season. Joe Maddon made the surprising call to start Moore in game one of the ALDS against the Texas Rangers.

It was the only game the Rays won in the series.

For his brief appearance in the Major Leagues, Matt Moore pitched 19.1 innings, allowed just 12 hits, 4 runs, 6 walks, and 23 strikeouts. Tampa�s next great pitching prospect seemed poised to be the mound version of Mike Trout.

It didn�t start off that well. Moore�s first three starts were filled with moments, but the rookie largely struggled as he issued 14 walks and allowed 25 hits during his first 25 innings. Although he pitched into the seventh inning in three of those starts, Moore wasn�t the dominant force he was expected to be, especially after his playoff performance. But, the stuff and talent was evident. It was just a matter of when he would put it together.

Moore lost his opportunity to take an early lead in the Rookie of the Year race as Trout was already up and running heading into May. Meanwhile, Moore put together another lackluster month. Inconsistency with the strike zone was the culprit because despite 41 strikeouts in 31.2 innings, he allowed 30 hits and 14 walks. Through his first 10 starts, Moore had 1-5 record along with a 4.83 ERA and had allowed 9 home runs.

Luckily, Moore plays for Joe Maddon.

If anyone has ever been in the same room with Maddon for more than five minutes, they will come out believing that the Rays will win 100 games. Maddon supported his struggling lefty, knowing that his emergence would be the key to a second half surge. The Rays offense is one of the worst in the game, but that rotation makes them a legitimate contender. David Price has turned out to be a legitimate number one. James Shields has struggled a bit this season, but he is capable of being a top of the rotation starter. With more pitching depth than any other organization, the Rays could have demoted Moore for a bit.

Maddon stuck with his young, budding star. His patience paid off.

In June, Moore won three of his five starts, along with two no decisions. While his walks were still up (14), he allowed just 26 hits in 31.1 innings, while striking out 32 batters and holding opponents to just a .224/.305/.379 batting line and a 3.16 ERA. Slowly, it was starting to come together.

It came just at the right time for the Rays as their main offensive threat, Evan Longoria, was on the disabled list, leaving their offense listless. July was almost a carbon copy of May, with a slight decrease in strikeouts, but the same success rate. In two August starts, he has allowed just 1 run in 11.2 innings along with 12 strikeouts and 5 walks.

Moore has helped key the Rays� pitching staff that has carried the Rays into the Wild Card position and within five games of the division leading Yankees. Since July 18th, the Rays pitching staff has pitched to a 2.18 ERA and have struck out a batter per inning.

A poor offense can succeed with elite level pitching. David Price has been brilliant all season. Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Cobb have been largely consistent. The main differences have been Shields and Moore.

Moore�s gradual improvement has led to an overall record of 9-7 with a 3.73 ERA. In 130.1 innings, he is averaging 7.9 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.3 BB/9, and 8.6 K/9. The walks are troubling, but the fact that he has such swing and miss ability makes up for it and does somewhat limit the damage. Moore has elicited swings and misses on 20.5 percent of all pitches thrown in the strike zone. Among all Major League starters, only Justin Verlander (21%) and RA Dickey (20.8%) rank higher.

Moore�s slow start has made his season look a bit worse than it really is. His 4.03 FIP indicates that the Rays defense has helped him out. But, that FIP has decreased every month, going from an April FIP of 5.49 to July FIP of 3.32. His two August starts have produced a 2.32 FIP. His home runs per nine rate has also decreased from an April high of 1.44 to zero since the start of July. His last five starts have been absolutely dominant, as in ace-like (30.2 innings, 20 hits, 12 walks, 28 strikeouts, 1.47 ERA).

Many thought that this type of dominance was what the Rays would be seeing all year from Moore. But, not everyone puts it together right away. For every Stephen Strasburg, there are dozens of pitchers who take a bit more time to develop. Given Moore�s history of slow starts, his season has been quite good.

His flaws are very apparent. He is walking too many hitters. His flyball rate is too high. But, his stuff is elite. As a 23 year old rookie, it is scary to think of his ceiling. The Rays already signed him through the 2019 season. Like Evan Longoria, the Rays struck quickly to lock up a young, elite talent. Moore has already made good on that promise as this season has progressed. This is how the Rays succeed with limited payroll. They lock in their elite talent early and fill in.

Despite having one of the worst offenses in the sport, the Rays just won�t go away. They�ve surged on the strength of their pitching staff. That surge didn�t happen until Matt Moore began to pitch to expectations. As he continues to improve, the Rays could have two aces backed by three above average pitchers.

In other words, they have the best rotation in the league.

If Moore continues to pitch like an ace, the Rays can get through and win a World Series. Even if they go the Wild Card route, the rotation is so deep that they can afford to pitch any of their starters in the one game Wild Card round and still have the ability to match up with the second round opponent. Matt Moore makes that difference.

Mike Trout is obscuring just about every good season compiled this year. But, his fellow rookie in Tampa has been one of the best pitchers in the league for the past month. He won�t win the award, but he is certainly deserving of attention. And, in a couple of seasons, he�ll be contending for his own award.

Comments

# 1 WaddupCouzin @ Aug 14

Excellent read. I live in the Tampa area and I was a bit troubled by Matt's slow start but he's began to put it all together for the Rays to make this push. I haven't seen your blog before Gary but I'm going to add you to my baseball blog reading. Tommy Rancel, Jason Collette (Drays Bay), and Cork Gaines (Rays Index) are other excellent baseball readings for Rays fans.

# 2 Gary Armida @ Aug 14

Thanks for the kind words. I really appreciate them. Those guys are great and give a ton of great content. I had a chance to meet Jason at the Winter Meetings two years ago. Tremendous guy.

# 3 THE YAMA @ Aug 14

Great read here. I'm a huge Tampa Bay Rays fan, so you could understand why this late run has got me pretty excited about our post-season chances. Especially with Longo back.